Math behind Moneyball

Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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Syllabus

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course
Week 1
Before you start…
Module 1

Week 2
Module 2
You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.
Week 3
Module 3
You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.
Week 4
Module 4
You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.
Week 5
Module 5
You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.
Week 6
Module 6
You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.
Week 7
Module 7
You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.
Week 8
Module 8
You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.
Week 9
Module 9
You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!
Week 10
Module 10
You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.
Week 11
Final Exam

FAQ

When will I have access to the lectures and assignments?

Access to lectures and assignments depends on your type of enrollment. If you take a course in audit mode, you will be able to see most course materials for free. To access graded assignments and to earn a Certificate, you will need to purchase the Certificate experience, during or after your audit. If you don't see the audit option:

What will I get if I purchase the Certificate?

When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

Is financial aid available?

Yes. In select learning programs, you can apply for financial aid or a scholarship if you can’t afford the enrollment fee. If fin aid or scholarship is available for your learning program selection, you’ll find a link to apply on the description page.

Reviews

Great class. Longer to complete than the estimates though.

Pretty good course where you learn how to analyse performance via various statistical analysis techniques. You also learn quite a bit in MS Excel.

Great course, however very heavy emphasis on Baseball and NFL. Resultantly some of the assessment questions proved impossible given the knowledge needed about the sport.

Great course for sport fans who want to learn about sports analytics. But need to have extensive knowledge on game rules and specific terms for MLB, NFL, NBA